Long-range Planning Update
In fall 2004, the Wake County Public School System contracted with N.C. State University’s Operations Research and Education Laboratory to create an analytical, data-driven process that incorporates land use and future developments into determining the best locations for new schools. This will be a continuous long-range school and community planning process involving WCPSS, Wake County government, the 12 municipalities, and the Capital Area Municipal Planning Organization, with the Lab coordinating updates. The new method improves upon the current system by incorporating municipal planning data and projections into school and infrastructure planning, adding GIS technology and operations research methodologies, and projecting school sites beyond a three- or four-year bond cycle.
In spring 2006, the Lab provided enrollment projections, broken down into approximately 39 urban/non-urban service areas across the county, through 2010; these projections reflect the municipalities’ data on land use plans and future developments. The Lab’s model will use the Wake County Planning Department’s countywide enrollment projections as a baseline, but the forecasted growth will be broken down into smaller geographic areas than what was used previously. School board members and county commissioners will use this data to help determine the locations of new schools to open in 2010 and beyond.
In addition to the projections, the Lab is working with WCPSS to construct an optimization model to generate target areas for school site land banking. By the end of June 2006, the Lab will provide target areas, or circles, for new school locations, as well as student population growth by geographic planning regions, through 2025.
The model will be updated each year to validate and adjust municipalities’ assumptions on subdivision build-out rates and to capture new activities.